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What is a newsletter subscriber worth over their lifetime?

Problem

  • Most site owners have no idea what one subscriber is worth, so they cannot tell what to spend on getting one.
  • Every list leaks - people unsubscribe, change email address or stop opening, every month.

Solution

  • Read your open and click rates off your email tool, and the visits the clicks bring off your WebCounter counter.
  • Put them into the free calculator below and it shows what a subscriber earns a month, over their lifetime and what the whole list is worth.

Key points

  • One subscriber is worth R15.50 over three years in the default example - 60 cents a month.
  • A list of 1,000 is worth about R15,504 over the same three years, if nobody new joins.
  • At 2% lost a month, half the list has gone after 35 months.
  • Halving the share you lose adds R2.71 a subscriber - doubling it costs R3.95.
  • R15.50 is the most you can pay to win a subscriber and still break even.

In how many newsletter subscribers will you have after a year we counted the list. In email list vs search traffic we compared it with Google. This post puts a price on one name: what a newsletter subscriber earns you before they leave - and what you can afford to pay to get one.

Where a subscriber's value comes from

A subscriber earns nothing until they open an email and click.

  • Earnings a month are emails sent times the open rate, the share of openers who click and what a click earns - ad views, an affiliate sale or a sale of your own.
  • Open rates are less exact than they look - since 2021 Apple Mail Privacy Protection loads emails for many Apple users whether they read them or not, which pushes open rates up.
  • Every month some subscribers leave, so the value is a sum that shrinks a little each month.
  • In South Africa POPIA requires consent for marketing email, so a subscriber who opted in is worth protecting - you cannot simply buy a list.

Work out what a subscriber is worth to you

Type the emails you send a month, your open rate, the share of openers who click, what a click earns you, the share of subscribers you lose a month, the size of your list and how long to count. The calculator shows the earnings a subscriber a month, the lifetime value, how long subscribers stay and what the list is worth, and charts the value building up.

Prefer a full page? Open the newsletter subscriber value calculator on CalcSA. To see how fast the list grows, the newsletter growth calculator goes deeper.

Worked example: the calculator's defaults

A site sends 4 emails a month. An estimated 30% of subscribers open each one, and an estimated 10% of those who open click. A click earns an estimated R5. An estimated 2% of subscribers are lost each month. Counted over 36 months:

  • A subscriber earns 60 cents a month - 0.12 clicks at R5.
  • Over 36 months one subscriber is worth R15.50, counting the ones who leave.
  • The average subscriber stays 50 months, but half the list has gone after 35.
  • A list of 1,000 is worth about R15,504 over the three years if nobody new joins.
  • So paying R10 a subscriber for a lead magnet or ad pays back - paying R20 does not.

Three more cases, same defaults except the one shown:

  • You lose 1% a month instead of 2%: R18.22 a subscriber, and half the list lasts 69 months.
  • You lose 4% a month: R11.55 a subscriber, and half the list has gone after 17 months.
  • A click earns R2 instead of R5: R6.20 a subscriber - what a click earns matters as much as how many there are.

Estimates. The 30% open rate, the 10% of openers who click, the R5 a click and the 2% lost a month are assumptions, as in the calculator. Your email tool reports your real open and click rates, and your WebCounter counter shows the visits the clicks bring.

Three years of one subscriber

Same 4 emails a month, 30% opening, 10% clicking and R5 a click. What one subscriber has earned you so far, losing 1%, 2% or 4% of the list a month:

  • 1% lost a month
  • 2% lost a month
  • 4% lost a month
Earnings per subscriber so far, in rand, for 36 months at R0.60 a month, with 1%, 2% or 4% of subscribers lost each month. Illustrative estimate - rates and earnings per click are assumptions.
Show the numbers as a table
Month1% lost a month2% lost a month4% lost a month
0R0.00R0.00R0.00
6R3.51R3.42R3.26
12R6.82R6.46R5.81
24R12.86R11.53R9.37
36R18.22R15.50R11.55
  • The lines barely differ in the first six months - losing subscribers costs you later, not now.
  • Keep the list warm - a regular send and a clear reason to open does more than a bigger sign-up box.
  • Clean out people who never open - they do not earn, and they hurt delivery to the ones who do.

Reading your counter for this

Your WebCounter counter shows visits by source, so you can see what your emails actually bring to the site. No counter yet? Get your free WebCounter counter - it takes a minute and costs nothing.

  • Email visits: tag the links in your newsletter so the visits show up as email, not "direct".
  • Earnings per click: what those visits earn in ads or sales, divided by the clicks your email tool reports.
  • Returning visitors: subscribers should show up as returners again and again.
  • Count bots out - some email security scanners click every link, which inflates clicks.

Sources

  • Apple, Mail Privacy Protection (introduced with iOS 15, 2021) - emails are loaded in the background, which inflates open rates - from general knowledge, not re-checked for this post.
  • Protection of Personal Information Act 4 of 2013, section 69 - consent for direct marketing by electronic communication - summarised, not legal advice.
  • The 30% open rate, 10% of openers clicking, R5 a click and 2% lost a month are our estimates - no South African benchmark for earnings per email click was found.
  • Calculator: CalcSA, Newsletter subscriber value.

Estimates only. What a subscriber is worth depends on what you send and what a click earns; your email tool and your own counter are the test.

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